← All thinking
Note 052 min readThe Normal-Looking Leak

Your funnel may not be the problem

Top-of-funnel is the easiest place to look and the most expensive place to fix. Three questions to ask before you touch it.

The single operational flaw costing your company the most money is almost never an obvious disaster. It’s usually a process that looks completely, comfortably normal.

Catastrophic breakdowns get immediate executive attention, and attention gets them resolved. The truly expensive leaks are the ones disguised as business as usual: the introductory pricing model you established at launch and never revisited, the marketing channel everyone assumes is “working fine,” or the monthly agency dashboard everyone trusts because nobody has ever taken thirty minutes to reconcile it against the bank account.

$918 on $600 in spend, reported as 11.7×

Take a $20M direct-to-consumer skincare brand I audited. The outside performance agency had been reporting an 11.7× return on ad spend for months.

On an executive slide, that’s an absolute banger of a metric. Naturally, the CEO’s primary strategic question was how fast they could double their media spend and put the whole acquisition budget on steroids.

Before greenlighting more cash, I went into Shopify and reconciled their top-performing campaign directly against gross receipts. In reality, that campaign had produced exactly $918 in net sales against $600 in ad spend. The true return was barely 1.5×.

Customer acquisition was never their actual constraint. The e-commerce store was converting at a miserable 0.97%, which was less than a third of the platform benchmark. Which is completely wild for a brand doing twenty million in top-line sales.

And when I looked further down the pipe, the automated email recovery flows that should have captured abandoned checkouts had been accidentally toggled off during an engineering migration eighteen months earlier. Nobody had ever turned them back on.

The company didn’t need more top-of-funnel traffic. We kept the exact same ad spend, fixed the conversion leaks, turned the email flows back on, and store conversion jumped to 2.73%, with true blended return climbing past 14×.

There was zero growth-hacking magic involved. It all came from plugging three normal-looking leaks.

Three diagnostic questions before you touch the funnel

If you’re feeling the pressure to spend more on customer acquisition this quarter, ask three diagnostic questions first:

  • Is the reported metric commercially real? Pull your top-performing marketing campaign and reconcile the claimed return against your merchant deposits. If the math doesn’t hold up to the penny, that’s finding number one, and every strategic assumption built on top of it is dead wrong.
  • What happens to the buyers who already said yes? Look at checkout completion, enterprise onboarding, and the first sixty days of usage. If qualified demand is dying after the purchase, pouring more leads into the top of the pipe just multiplies your losses. A tiny leak at the bottom turns into a massive sinkhole.
  • What was established once and never interrogated again? Find the legacy discount that quietly became standard pricing. Find the shipping threshold that shocks customers at checkout. Or find the automated notification flow someone turned off two years ago during a software upgrade.

Whenever I pinpoint the structural leak in a business, the founder almost always gives me the exact same sheepish response: “oh, that? We’ve just done it that way for years.”

Which is precisely why it stayed invisible, and precisely why it kept bleeding margin.

Know where this has to go, and not how?

Twenty minutes. Tell me where you want this company to be in two years and I’ll tell you what I’d go look at first.